BLOG POST # 7: THERE IS NO OPEN CONVENTION!
Saturday, June 2nd, 2012.
Dear Wonderful Readers,
I am voting my conscience on November 6th as every voter should. The answers below are all from RON DEVITO, member of GOPAYL, and Editor of US4Palin (as you may well know). The information provided is greatly appreciated but is useless if it is not read!! For those who thought there might be an open convention, it is abundantly CLEAR to Mr. Devito: THERE IS NO OPEN CONVENTION 2012. NO last-minute miracle is expected either. You can say SANTA CLAUS IS NOT COMING TO TOWN. ELVIS IS NOT ALIVE. THE BEATLES ARE NOT GETTING BACK TOGETHER AND PIGS DONT FLY..get the drift? There is no easy way to tell the Truth sometimes, but it must be done. For me, getting good information is like nourishing my body with a healthy meal. It must be done! Please enjoy the Q&A.. You may leave your comments below the post.
**** MAY 29th, 2012. *****
Q: Is the 1144 floor count a conclusive number of DELEGATES Romney has?
A: Tonight's numbers are soft-counted numbers and include an estimate, but 1144 hard will hit next Tuesday. 2286 delegates are in the pool. 1143 is half. 1144 is what wins the nomination. One person more than half. I have him hitting 1147 tonight based on simple average of soft-count. He gets 1293 hard counted by June 5....winner take alls in that bunch he'll get 100% of those delegates. That's the math. You know how I feel about Romney, but we can't pretend it's not happening.
Q: Soft v. hard delegates: Are "hard" delegates legally bound to ROmney and "soft" ones not?
A: There are two ways to count delegates. "Hard" count means only those delegates who are bound or committed by the laws of their respective states. The RNC itself does not bind delegates, but states do. "Soft" count adds to the hard numbers an estimate of how delegates are likely to vote. Different media outlets and organizations use varying algorithms and methods to determine soft counts. When you see something like the Wall Street Journal Delegate tracker, or CNN's numbers, those are soft numbers. Soft are used, because it's easier for the average voter to understand. Romney achieved 1012 hard-counted delegates as of last night. He will achieve 1294 hard counted delegates when you apply the current average delegate take which is 67.6% to the proportional states and 100% to the winner take-alls next week. His soft-counted delegates as of last night are 1148. I use The Green Papers for my numbers. They're most reliable.
Some 88%+ of Texans stayed home yesterday. Cruz should not be going to a recall. He should have won outright. Where were all the conservatives who hate Romney? If you don't get off your butts and vote, that's what you get. You put nothing in, you get nothing out. Of the 11% who did bother to vote, Romney won their votes by 71% and whether you like the guy or hate him, he won those votes fair and square. No one is alleging voter fraud. So, what delegate is going to disenfranchise those who did bother to vote?
This has been a perfectly conventional process. A group of candidates ran. All except one were weak. A front-runner emerged. The front-runner hit his numbers. The failed candidates are rallying behind the front-runner who will be nominated in a highly stage-managed choreographed event. That's it. That's how it's been done for over 200 years. There won't be miracles, cavalries, or white horses at the convention.
The bottom line is when you vote for a candidate, you're actually voting for the underlying slate of delegates, not the candidate. Delegates commit to a candidate prior to trying to become a delegate and spend $3K to $5K of their own money to sit at the convention. They're not going to alter their commitment on someone who chose not to run, and not when the states have already voted. Some 88%+ of Texans stayed home yesterday. Cruz should not be going to a recall. He should have won outright.
Where were all the conservatives who hate Romney? If you don't get off your butts and vote, that's what you get. You put nothing in, you get nothing out. Of the 11% who did bother to vote, Romney won their votes by 71% and whether you like the guy or hate him, he won those votes fair and square. No one is alleging voter fraud. So, what delegate is going to disenfranchise those who did bother to vote? This has been a perfectly conventional process. A group of candidates ran. All except one were weak. A front-runner emerged. The front-runner hit his numbers. The failed candidates are rallying behind the front-runner who will be nominated in a highly stage-managed choreographed event. That's it. That's how it's been done for over 200 years. There won't be miracles, cavalries, or white horses at the convention.
Q: What about RULE 38?
A: The GOP Chair has already flouted the rules by "merging with the Romney campaign" and putting the full weight of the RNC behind said campaign while primaries are still ongoing. He did this after 4/24. I'm very familiar with Rule 38. ...The Ron Paul people are doing that with stealth delegates. But they have nowhere near the numbers they need. They're over 500 short. Furthermore, both the Democrat and Republican parties follow Parliamentary Procedures. This means, a candidate can be nominated by acclimation without a full vote of the delegates. This is in fact how the Democrats nominated Obama. If the GOP chair sees that delegates are abstaining, etc. the proceedings get stopped, the motion is made to nominate by acclimation, and it's over with.
Q: Can we nominate Sarah Palin by acclimation without a full count of the delegates?
A: Nomination by acclimation won't end the GOP. It's a standard parliamentary procedure. Both parties use it and as noted there is already precedent. Obama was nominated by acclimation. It was actually Hillary Clinton who orchestrated it,... so as to expedite "healing" and "party unity."
Governor Palin made clear multiple times and in multiple ways what her role is going to be. It's rebuilding the party at the Senate and House - creating a new establishment. Look at all the crap the existing establishment hurled at her that we've been fighting these last five months - and she's not even running. Why do you think Game Change was made? The makers were afraid she was going to run. You cannot win a nomination when you are at war with the very people you need to help you win said nomination. She wants the freedom to do this on her terms and doing it from the outside is how she chose to do it. We can speculate about what would have happened had she run, but we know what happened with her not running. The party is afflicted with a political form of cancer. The cancer needs to be removed before she can run and win.
You (that's everyone reading this - in the group or out) can respect her decision, resent her decision, or pretend she is running. No skin off my back either way and I'm not going to debate anyone on it. That's up to each person's conscience to proceed accordingly. I'm just giving my analysis based on the data I have available to me.
Sarah 2012 is OUR narrative as Palinistas, not hers. We're the ones pushing the issue. Not her. I've pushed the narrative myself since the night Obama got re-elected. I was one of 20 people who paid for a full-page ad on her birthday in '09 in the Frontiersman asking her to run, when doing so was "not cool."
I know this is hurtful to some, but that's where we are and we need to come to grips with it. Furthermore, she has said repeatedly she will support the GOP nominee - even if it's Romney - and that is on tape. So, what are going to do when that day comes? Turn our hate on her? Form our own PUMA movement which will only help Obama win?
We all thought she was running on 10/5 and she chose not to, so we were blind-sided - it was like a baseball bat to the solar plexus for us. I suffered - and still do - over it. It hurts. But that was her decision.
Romney hitting the soft numbers as a result of a perfectly conventional process should not be a surprise to us. We're not noobs here. We knew this was coming.
Yes, Romney is a RINO. Yes he lacks courage and integrity. But, he is unofficially the nominee and by hard numbers will be next week and it will be made official at the convention. To expect otherwise is to set yourself up for a major heartbreak.
Q: What do we do then?
A: GOTV - GET OUT THE VOTE!!!! This is going to be won or lost on GOTV and right now we - that is conservatives as a whole - are doing a miserable job of GOTV.
~ A very special thank you to Ron Devito ~